New Poll: Democrats Gaining Midterm Momentum, But Possibility Remains for 'Democrats To Get it Wrong'
Democracy Corps suggests de-emphasizing the crime issue in the 2022 campaign
While Democrats are making important strides in public opinion heading into the crucial, upcoming midterm elections, they still have room to blow it.
That's the result of a new public opinion poll commissioned by Democracy Corps, the Washington DC-based nonprofit designed to help make the federal government more responsive to voters and founded by by James Carville and Stanley Greenberg, veterans from President Bill Clinton's run for the White House.
Democrats have seen electoral momentum shift towards them in the weeks since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade and upended half a century of national abortion rights.
Democratic candidates won a special election in a New York swing district as well as — astoundingly — taking the at-large House seat in red-state Alaska for the first time since 1972.
Democrats will be defending their razor-thin majorities in both houses of Congress in November.
They have moved into a small 3-point lead in the generic congressional ballot because their partisans are now equally engaged with Republicans and slightly more consolidated, as GOP fractures grow, according to a memo released by Democracy Corps outlining the poll results.
“But this is a volatile moment where two-thirds believe the country is on the wrong track, inflation puts cost of living to the top of issues to be addressed, crime and border issues could explode, and President Biden’s 55-percent disapproval still creates a strong headwind for Democrats, despite recent gains,” the memo said. “With two-thirds believing country on the wrong track and a big majority disapproving Biden, it is easy for Democrats to get it wrong.
“Engaging on the crime issue, for example, hurts Democrats. We get a reduced vote margin after we join the debate on funding and defunding the police. The biggest fear with Democratic control of government is Democratic cities facing rising homelessness, crime and attacks on police. So, this is not the time to elevate the crime issue,” the memo added.
Democracy Corps conducted a national web survey among 2,770 registered voters from September 9 through 15. The data include a base sample of 1,270 registered voters, with large oversamples of 500 Black voters, 500 Hispanic voters, and 500 Asian-American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters, according to Democracy Corps.
The oversample data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s regional, age, and gender composition reflects that of the estimated registered voters in the United States, the memo on the poll results added.
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