Trump Says Iran’s Nuclear Program Was ‘Obliterated.’ An Arms Expert Doubts That
The true purpose of US bombing of Iranian sites was always regime change, he adds
While Donald Trump and his administration claim that US military strikes over the weekend “obliterated” Iran’s program to develop a nuclear weapon, an arms-control expert says, “Maybe not.”
Indeed, Jeffrey Lewis — professor at the Middlebury Institute, member of the National Academies Committee on International Security and Arms Control, and a former member of the State Department’s International Security Advisory Board — contends that the bombing mission carried out against three targets inside Iran was never truly about nuclear weapons and is actually about regime change.
That’s a supposition supported by Trump’s own statements in the aftermath of the attack.
US military bombers struck three targets in the early hours Sunday, local time: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. All three are related to Iran’s efforts to develop a nuclear capability. The US intervention sided directly with Israel in its ongoing conflict with Iran.
Trump and his top White House spokeswoman said the attacks “obliterated” the ability to pursue those ambitions.
But, in a lengthy thread posted to his social media, Lewis argued otherwise.
“Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure,” he said in that thread on BlueSky. “RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures.”
Rising Lion is Israel’s name for its operations against Iran and Midnight Hammer was the code name given to the US raid.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s justification for conducting this strike was that “Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium [HEU] for nine atom bombs -- nine,” Lewis said, with Netanyahu referring to Iran’s stockpile of about 400 kilograms of 60-percent enriched uranium which — if further enriched — would be enough for nine or 10 weapons.
“The 400 kg of HEU was largely stored in underground tunnels near the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. Despite extensive Israeli and US attacks the facility, there does not seem to have been any effort to destroy these tunnels or the material that was in them,” Lewis said, including images in his post designed to bolster his view.
This means Iran has retained 400 kg of highly enriched uranium, the ability to manufacture centrifuges, and one, possibly two underground enrichment sites, he said. That is also to say nothing of possible secret sites, he added.
“Look, I get it. Watching bombers conduct an >11,000 km precision bombing raid is awesome,” Lewis posted, adding, “But what does it say when two of the most amazing military operations in modern memory are still unable to fully eliminate Iran's nuclear program? I think that's proof that this is tactical brilliance may be in service of a foolhardy strategy.”
The combined Israeli and US operations against Iran have not slowed the Iranian nuclear program nearly as much as the international deal established by President Barack Obama in 2015 known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Trump abrogated that arrangement, however, during his first term in office.
“We hold diplomacy to much higher standards than bombing,” Lewis posted. “The same people who endlessly complained about the JCPOA ‘sunsetting’ are now happy to delay Iran’s bomb by much less.”
“This is why I said the strike is about regime change,” he added.
Indeed, Lewis’ contention is now supported by a social media post from Trump which specifically invokes regime change, which Trump is calling “MIGA,” or “Make Iran Great Again,” using the branding of his own political movement.
“We ought to judge this strike by its real purpose, not the legal camouflage of preemptive self-defense. If the strike leaves the current regime, or something very much like it, in power with a nuclear option then it will have been a strategic failure,” Lewis posted in the conclusion of his thread.
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