WASHINGTON WATCH: Be Careful For What You Wish For (The Midterms Edition)
Even if he ends up being speaker, Kevin McCarthy might find he comes not to like it much
As I write this, results from Tuesday's important midterm elections are not yet really fully known.
Here we sit the following day and we not only still know who will lead the US Senate — which was largely a given ahead of Election Day — but astoundingly the next majority of the US House of Representatives remains unknown as well.
And, certainly, the Republicans' vaunted “red wave,” just wasn't — thanks, apparently, to historically high turnout among the youngest voters.
“#GenZ did their job,” pollster John Della Volpe tweeted, along with some very eye-opening data.
One thing that we can say for certain: Even if Republicans do end up wresting control of the lower chamber next year, their majority is going to be closer to today's tiny Democratic majority rather than the mammoth Republican majorities which swept into power after the wave years of 1994 or 2010.
And that's going to make life very complicated for presumptive next Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Indeed, McCarthy — who's been salivating over the speakership for months, if not years — may come to regret his covetousness.
Current Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi has made it look easy to govern with a nearly microscopic majority, when in fact, that's been one of her great gifts and skills.
The truth is that it's a nightmare.
Just ask one-time Republican Speaker John Boehner.
A longtime Ohio lawmaker, Boehner abruptly resigned from the speakership after fewer than five years on the job because of an internal right-wing revolt over a federal spending bill.
Even Boehner's successor, Speaker Paul Ryan, often seemed to be led by his caucus rather than the other way around.
And if it was bad for those Republicans, it would be to intensely worse for McCarthy?
Why?
Because this time, House Republicans won't merely fracture over some banal policy like federal spending or a Farm Bill.
No.
McCarthy will be beholden to the cadre of MAGA Republicans in his midst who wants to go full-tilt into impeaching President Biden — simply as revenge for the deserved impeachments of Donald Trump.
The problem probably will be one of simple math. At the end of the day, McCarthy may well find that he just can't get even the bare 218 votes to pass impeachment.
Why?
Because there will be at least a few members among a new Republican majority who will have won on the margins — in swing districts — and taking a vote of naked partisan retribution would be political suicide.
I'm thinking precisely of Rep-elect Jen Kiggans, who defeated a Democratic incumbent in a Virginia swing district.
Unless Kiggans is so ardent a partisan that she's willing to throw away her reelection and go for “one-and-done,” Kiggans — and the other swing district freshmen like her — will take one look at a Biden impeachment and go running far away for their own electoral survival.
Which will only enrage the MAGA loyalists like Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene, of Georgia. (Who apparently is losing her toxic playmate, Rep Lauren Boebert, of Colorado.)
All of which is going to give McCarthy a righteous headache — and leave him wondering anew why he even wanted this job in the first place.
Editor's Note: Washington Watch is our occasional column on the news and happenings in Washington DC and national politics.
Please consider supporting our work by joining our Patreon for as little as $5…
Also, please subscribe…